At the recent virtual Africa Proptech Forum and Jo'burg leg of the Connect Global Proptech festival, local and global industry experts shared insights and proptech trends for the growing sub-sector, and its implications for Africa's property industry.

As one of the few sectors predicted to emerge on a stronger footing post Covid-19, proptech and the rapid adoption of its applications and services by the property industry will reshape the entire real estate value chain. From property and facilities management, brokerage and agency, construction, transactions and more, real estate firms, investors, financiers, developers, startups and tech players across Africa are all investing in and developing innovative solutions and products ready for use.

Some key proptech trends that were identified at the events included:

-Key Covid-19 related technologies are being implemented across existing buildings including thermal cameras, contactless access points with Bluetooth/mobile integration, automated control systems for air filtration and office occupancy tracking hardware and software.

-Technology is helping to cut out the middleman through peer-to-peer services or products, crowdfunding and the sharing economy.

-Technology is driving innovation in property uses through cloud working, co-working, immersive technology (e.g. VR &amp; augmented reality) and the online retail revolution, including click &amp; collect or delivery.

-Property is becoming more and more of a service rather than just pure GLA. What is being delivered to the end user needs more consideration – technology will have a greater role to play in enabling this environment in terms of how tenants interact with their space.

-First key adoption for REITs / larger portfolios has been in property and facilities management, with applications for smart/electronic meters, water meters, sensors etc. This is continuing the drive to automate and digitise the manual property management processes.

<a href="https://apievents.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Takeaways-from-APF-2020.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="Read more insights about the proptech industry from the two events here. (opens in a new tab)">Read more insights about the proptech industry from the two events here. </a>

Takeaways from the Africa Proptech Forum & JHB Connect Series

The Q4 RICS Global Commercial Property Monitor report is out, outlining trends in the global commercial property markets during the fourth quarter of 2020.
As with previous quarters last year, sentiment in the real estate market remained generally downbeat, although a little less so towards the end of the year. Given the ongoing macro challenges in many parts of the world as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, this is not surprising.
Despite this sobering reality, the modest improvement in the feedback to the GCPM compared with the preceding quarter is clearly visible in the key metrics capturing the tone in both the occupier and investment segments of the market. The chart below shows the trend in the RICS Commercial Property Sentiment Indices since 2008:&nbsp;


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/black-pepper/image/upload/v1612288758/Global-Sentiment-Index_ct1kbe.png" alt="" class="wp-image-25583"/></figure>


The latest results capture the second successive quarterly improvement from the low point touched in Q2 of 2020. Some specific insights gained from the Q4 report include:
- Serious issues remain around the future of bricks and mortar retail stores, and requirements for offices in a post-pandemic world
- Cross-border investment enquiries are still flat, reflecting ongoing concerns about the future in the sector this year
- Logistics/industrial continue to outperform alongside some alternatives such as data centres
Specifically within South Africa, regional comments included:
"The property market is under pressure, however, it is still one of the safer investments to make and was probably inflated anyway. It should start to recover by the second quarter."
"The Covid-19 induced downturn exacerbated an already sluggish market but especially hit office and retail. Q3 economic data points to a strong recovery but not adequate to support commercial property recovery or reduce unemployment over the short to medium term especially with a second wave of COVID19 and a new strain infecting younger people currently underway."
<a href="https://www.rics.org/globalassets/rics-website/media/knowledge/research/market-surveys/construction-monitor/q4-2020-gcpm-headline-report---final.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Read the full RICS Commercial Property Monitor report for Q4 2020 here.</a>

Q4 RICS Global Commercial Property Monitor

Fortress, one of South Africa's premier listed REITS, <a rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="recently wrote about (opens in a new tab)" href="https://fortressfund.co.za/press/logistics-will-be-a-part-of-the-rebuild-of-the-economic-recovery/" target="_blank">recently wrote about</a> how the accelerated adoption of e-commerce and supply chain innovation post-pandemic is helping to reshape the commercial property sector in South Africa, especially the logistics real estate sector.

In a webinar on the future of South Africa's logistics industry, hosted by the company earlier this year, a key insight gained was that activity has increased in the logistics real estate sector in the last 12 months as online shopping habits have become more widespread — especially during the lockdown period.

Given this expected growth in demand for ecommerce and delivery to home services, Black Pepper Properties is repositioning ourselves, to assist corporate customers with a move into logistics warehousing.

Taking the growth of ecommerce businesses like Amazon and Takealot locally, the growth of the online to home delivery trend is clearly evident. We are the specialists who can help you establish your warehouse presence in order to facilitate this new, fast-growing consumer trend.

While this trend of people wanting goods and services delivered to their homes was undoubtedly spurred on by lockdown, now that the economy has opened up, this change in shopping habits looks set to stay. While business as a whole has suffered in 2020, pivoting in order to meet changing consumer demand is one way of ensuring relevance as we move towards 2021.

Need help with a logistics move for your business? <a href="mailto:simon@blackpepperonline.co.za">Email us</a> or call us on 083 261 2861 to discuss your needs and the solutions we offer.

Is logistics a growth lever for South Africa's economy in 2021?

As a guest contributor to <a href="https://www.tpn.co.za" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">TPN</a>'s third quarter Commercial Rental Monitor report, FNB's property sector strategist John Loos has seen a mildly improved tenant payment performance in the commercial sector during the third quarter. This follows a sharp second quarter drop as a result of the national lockdown in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

"Although we have seen some modest improvement in tenant payment performance in the 3rd quarter, the level of performance remains weak," says Loos. "And tenant financial performance would seem still too weak to drive the demand growth for space necessary to end a rising vacancy rate trend just yet."

Other insights from the third quarter of 2020 include:

• Commercial tenant rental payment performance: This recovered to 56.19% of commercial tenants being in good standing with landlords in Q3, which was up from from 50.36% in Q2. This still, however, remains well below the pre-lockdown level of 77.85% recorded in the 1st quarter of this year.

• Preliminary monthly tenant payment performance: The poorly performing Retail Property Sector’s tenant population showed a continued recovery, but the Industrial tenant population weakened slightly over the same period.

• The Retail Property Sector’s tenant population has been the most severely impacted of the major 3 property sectors through lockdown, while the smaller Storage Sector is in significantly better shape than all of the major three property sectors.

• The Western Cape maintained its superior tenant performance relative to Gauteng and KZN, with Gauteng continuing to show the weakest performance of the three major provinces.

<a href="https://data.blackpepperonline.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Commercial-Rental-Monitor-2020-Q3.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">You can read the full report here</a>.

Tenant payment performance for Q3

Given the extraordinary year we've been through, what is the future of the commercial office come 2021, and beyond?

If you're in the commercial property industry, knowing the answer to this could mean the difference between barely surviving as opposed to thriving in the years to come.

While we don't have a crystal ball, there has been research done into trends we're likely to see when it comes to commercial office space going forward. CBRE Research recently conducted a survey of 126 senior-level global real estate executives to determine how the COVID-19 pandemic will change the location, design and use of office space.

Some of their key findings were:

- Remote working is trending: More than half the respondents said they expect to work remotely outside of the office, either part time or full time.

- But physical offices will still be key: 41% of respondents said the importance of the physical office will decrease only slightly, while 38% said it will remain as important, if not more.

- People are making cyclical portfolio adjustments: The majority of respondents are pursuing lease renewals, while more than 75% have expansion plans on hold or canceled.

- Long-term strategies are under consideration: 70% are confident in setting long-term real estate strategies even amid the pandemic, and 73% of respondents expect flexible office space will play some role in future strategy.

- The workplace is quickly changing: Most respondents indicated workplace transformation is still trending away from dedicated private space and toward shared collaborative space.

The report concludes that from their research, they predict the function of the office will shift away from traditional work processes and oversight to more collaborative, educational and social needs of a growing hybrid workforce. It's clear then that being flexible and adaptable are two of the key attributes needed to succeed in the commercial office sector going forward.

<a rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="You can read the full report here (opens in a new tab)" href="https://data.blackpepperonline.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Future_of_the_Office_v2.pdf" target="_blank">You can read the full report here</a>.

The future of the office

In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, many people are realising they can work remotely and don't need to be physically located where their offices are. The trend of people moving to the coast seems to be picking up speed, and the "semigration" phenomenon to Cape Town from further up country is no exception. Whether you're looking for a "plug and play" coworking solution or a more permanent setup for your company, here are some premium Cape Town office space options we're currently featuring:
<a href="https://blackpepperonline.co.za/properties/property/to-let/office/claremont-wc/boundary-terraces-office-property-to-let-in-claremont-wc/e4260025-6a41-45f2-bfb3-a3fa8a3f7f0d" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Boundary Terraces</a>
<img class="alignnone wp-image-25496" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/black-pepper/image/upload/v1604404254/Screenshot-2020-11-03-at-13.31.35_oiqxmz.png" alt="" width="800" height="574" />
Address: 1 Mariendahl Lane, Newlands
This corporate office environment is nestled within Newlands, opposite the Newlands Cricket Stadium. These high-quality office spaces are ready to plug &amp; play, and contain hosting reception, boardrooms, open plan areas &amp; managers' offices. They also offer 24 hour access-controlled security, and easy access to all main arterial routes. 
<a href="https://blackpepperonline.co.za/properties/property/to-let/office/claremont-wc/newlands-terraces-office-property-to-let-in-claremont-wc/7e98ac2a-de7f-4c6d-804f-4c9fcf68652c" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Newlands Terraces</a>
<img class="alignnone wp-image-25495" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/black-pepper/image/upload/v1604404255/Screenshot-2020-11-03-at-13.29.21_tceu9z.png" alt="" width="800" height="454" />
Address: 8 Boundary Road, Newlands
Newlands Terraces offers an excellent location close the the Newlands Rugby Stadium in Cape Town's Southern Suburbs, with its leafy streets and close up views of Table Mountain. The offices are close to public transport and there is ample parking, along with comprehensive security, and a generator with full back-up power. It's also wheelchair friendly.
<a href="https://blackpepperonline.co.za/properties/property/to-let/office/foreshore/the-rubik-office-property-to-let-in-foreshore/7ccc80f0-6ebb-4e25-9b44-772d82d2efd4" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Rubik</a>
<img class="alignnone wp-image-25492" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/black-pepper/image/upload/v1604404257/Screenshot-2020-11-03-at-13.16.32_xfkxwy.png" alt="" width="800" height="502" />
Address: Loop and Riebeek Street, Cape Town CBD
Located within the enchanting Mother City, this modern building boasts magnificent views of Table Mountain and the ocean. The Rubik is conveniently situated on the corner of Loop- and Riebeek Street within the Cape Town CBD. This is a mixed-use building offering 404sqm of retail space, 5 081sqm of office space, as well as 79 residential apartments for sale.
<a href="https://blackpepperonline.co.za/properties/property/to-let/office/foreshore/35-lower-long-office-property-to-let-in-foreshore/dbc2322b-0948-4ad3-bc42-0757498e438f" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">35 Lower Long</a>
<img class="alignnone wp-image-25550 size-full" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/black-pepper/image/upload/v1605003306/35LowerLong_hqr8cq.png" alt="" width="724" height="991" />
Address: 35 Lower Long Street, Foreshore, Cape Town
35 Lower Long is a signature tower building that invigorates Cape Town’s Foreshore precinct by attracting premium tenants. Priority was given to activating the entire street edges of Lower Long &amp; Jetty Street with multiple entry points and a prominent double volume entrance space. The sculpted form of the building mass, the defragmentation and articulation of the corners provide dynamic views of the building across the city, both from street level and nearby buildings.
<a href="https://blackpepperonline.co.za/properties/property/to-let/office/dalsig-wc/trumali-house-office-property-to-let-in-dalsig-wc/90312f35-8e40-43ce-8c71-e9db4dc931ff" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Trumali House, Stellenbosch</a>


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Address: Trumali Street, Stellenbosch
Located in Stellenbosch alongside the R44 just near the Stellenbosch Mediclinic, Trumali House is a recently refurbished office space consisting of 3500sqm of multi-tenanted A-grade office space.&nbsp;
The offices are on the corner of the R44 – which runs between Stellenbosch and Somerset West – and Trumali Road. The building is conveniently located with nearby public transport and shopping facilities. It is directly adjacent to the new Eikestad Mediclinic hospital, which also makes it the ideal address for businesses for medical industry partners.
The complex also will ultimately include the Trumali Forum, a brand new office development currently under construction. The completed offices will boast an ultra modern design, and offers several different office configurations for companies of various sizes.
Interested in these Cape Town office spaces for your company? Chat to us today to find out more.&nbsp;

Cape Town & Stellenbosch Office Space

In recent years, Cape Town has seen a surge of growth in industrial property, with the emergence of new industrial nodes in addition to the well established industrial areas such as Epping, Montague Gardens and Brackenfell. Besides a large international airport, Cape Town's port also makes it an attractive industrial location from a logistics point of view. Cape Town's industrial nodes are well positioned close to the N1 and N2, the major arterials serving the rest of the country. Here are some of our featured Cape Town industrial properties:
<a href="https://blackpepperonline.co.za/properties/property/to-let/industrial/durbanville/the-studios-atlas-gardens-industrial-property-to-let-in-durbanville/3a778b91-4ae9-4f3c-a4b6-1106fad3571d" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Studios Atlas Gardens</a>
<img class="alignnone wp-image-25491" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/black-pepper/image/upload/v1604404260/Screenshot-2020-11-03-at-13.15.46_pvo2b5.png" alt="" width="800" height="350" />
Address: 1 Wild Olive Road, Atlas Gardens
The Studio Atlas Gardens is a tranquil working environment with low traffic and noise factors. It's close to N7 which gives quick access to N1 or R27 without traffic congestion. The offices have a modern design with plenty of flexibility and choice in unit size. Offices are also very secure with roller shutter doors and 24 hour security, along with ample parking.
<a href="https://blackpepperonline.co.za/properties/property/to-let/industrial/atlantic-hills/atlantic-hills-industrial-property-to-let-in-atlantic-hills/cd844484-bba5-4c9f-88e5-ace30615ea69" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Atlantic Hills</a>
Atlantic Hills Industrial Units are located within Atlantic Hills Business Park in the Durbanville area at the intersection of the N7 and M12. Atlantic Hills provides easy access to the Cape Town Harbour and Cape Town International Airport, both within a 22km radius from the park. The secure industrial estate will boast 24-hour security surveillance, as well as security fencing. Units range from 560sqm to 2 200sqm.
<img class="alignnone wp-image-25519 size-full" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/black-pepper/image/upload/v1604422834/Atlantic-Hills-Building-B_1_sjmjpf.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="426" />
<img class="alignnone wp-image-25464" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/black-pepper/image/upload/v1604390032/Screenshot-2020-11-03-at-09.34.09_hwwqka.png" alt="" width="800" height="441" />
<a href="https://blackpepperonline.co.za/properties/property/to-let/industrial/montague-gardens/montague-business-park-industrial-property-to-let-in-montague-gardens/0b69eb1e-f3d7-4369-ba9f-812e3790b914" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Montague Park</a>
Montague Park, on the northern border of Cape Town’s premier industrial node – Montague Gardens – and with easy access to all major arterial routes, has become one of the most desirable mixed-use locations in greater Cape Town.
The Park also offers new tailor made development opportunities which can accommodate either one tenant or multiple tenants as the building may be sub-divided into units ranging from 3 000sqm to 12 000sqm.
<img class="alignnone wp-image-25467" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/black-pepper/image/upload/v1604390029/Screenshot-2020-11-03-at-09.41.39_szbthn.png" alt="" width="800" height="335" />
<img class="alignnone wp-image-25468" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/black-pepper/image/upload/v1604390027/Screenshot-2020-11-03-at-09.41.52_vqbrud.png" alt="" width="800" height="455" />
<a href="https://blackpepperonline.co.za/properties/property/to-let/industrial/richmond-park-wc/richmond-park-industrial-property-to-let-in-richmond-park-wc/7985210b-5e53-4b7b-a915-f64086f1b454" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Richmond Park</a>
Richmond Park, Cape Town’s West Coast growth node, just 17 kilometres from the CBD, is a world class, mixed-use development integrating retail, light industrial and office space in a secure, landscaped precinct of 84 hectares.
The park offers close proximity and easy access to major highways and myCITI bus stops, and the facility has Eskom power and fibre-optic infrastructure.
<img class="alignnone wp-image-25521 size-full" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/black-pepper/image/upload/v1604422833/Screenshot-2020-11-03-at-18.59.23_xdod2n.png" alt="" width="800" height="337" />
<img class="alignnone wp-image-25469" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/black-pepper/image/upload/v1604390026/Screenshot-2020-11-03-at-09.47.29_joaiax.png" alt="" width="800" height="566" />
<img class="alignnone wp-image-25471" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/black-pepper/image/upload/v1604390023/Screenshot-2020-11-03-at-09.47.47_wjthc1.png" alt="" width="800" height="446" />Interested in these Cape Town industrial properties, or looking for something else? Chat to us today to find out more.

Cape Town Industrial Property

Industrial property in Durban is on a growth trajectory - despite the challenges of 2020. Durban's major advantage is its location, with reasonable access to both Johannesburg and Cape Town, in addition to the fact that it contains South Africa's largest port. The city also contains good infrastructure in terms of highways, as well as the King Shaka International Airport. Here are two premium industrial properties we can offer in the Durban area:
<a href="https://blackpepperonline.co.za/properties/property/to-let/industrial/cornubia/cornubia-ridge-logistics-park-industrial-property-to-let-in-cornubia/83fc1857-05a1-472f-a4cf-1e52c07f44b9" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Cornubia Ridge Logistics Park</a>
Cornubia Ridge Logistics Park is located within the catchment area of the government's re-industrialisation plan for the Durban region. The area continues to attract investment in logistics facilities with fantastic exposure off the N2 north and south.
<img class="alignleft wp-image-25437 size-full" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/black-pepper/image/upload/v1604342354/Screenshot-2020-11-02-at-13.59.03-1_t1xogy.png" alt="" width="1000" height="467" />


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Cornubia Ridge Logistics Park is strategically located to maximise support for logistics and supply chain strategies, and is ideally situated for the quick distribution of products. It's close to Umhlanga's thriving business hub, King Shaka International Airport and Dube Tradeport. With all this nearby, as a tenant you'll be close to retail hubs, trade ports and the main routes to Durban North.


<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/black-pepper/image/upload/v1604342351/Screenshot-2020-11-02-at-13.59.42-1_fcycqh.png" alt="" class="wp-image-25439"/></figure>


In terms of access to the property, 24 hour manned and gated security entry is easily accessible from all major highways including the N2 (in both directions) and the M41.
<a href="https://blackpepperonline.co.za/properties/property/to-let/industrial/mobeni/clairwood-logistics-park-industrial-property-to-let-in-mobeni/88db6a23-2e12-4e0a-8a42-6d701aef007b" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Clairwood Logistics Park</a>


<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/black-pepper/image/upload/v1604423522/Screenshot-2020-11-03-at-19.06.35_cong2a.png" alt="" class="wp-image-25527"/></figure>


In 2020, the former Clairwood racecourse and last remaining flat land available for development in Durban's South Basin, is now evolving into a world-class logistics hub. Today, Clairwood Logistics Park offers excellent proximity to Durban's port and main arterials. Specifically, Clairwood contains two entrances from the North and South, with exits to the M4 and Higgonson Highway, which provides access to the N2. It offers easy access from the M4 North and South, as well as Barrier Lane, and is 11 minutes from Durban's port.


<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/black-pepper/image/upload/v1604423520/Screenshot-2020-11-03-at-19.09.30_g3puoh.png" alt="" class="wp-image-25531"/></figure>


Clairwood offers over 25 000sqm under roof, a 4om yard, pumps and tanks, and 24 hour security.


<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/black-pepper/image/upload/v1604423521/Screenshot-2020-11-03-at-19.07.54_ixx9va.png" alt="" class="wp-image-25529"/></figure>


Interested in these Durban industrial properties? Chat to us today to find out more.&nbsp;

Durban Industrial Property

There's no disputing the fact that the global coronavirus pandemic has challenged every aspect of our society, from governments and healthcare systems to businesses big and small.

Supply chain and logistics companies have been facing this crisis head on, as they attempt to get essential goods to consumers amid significant disruptions with transport, restrictions in movement, and an unpredictable change in supply and demand for these goods.

In the <a href="https://www.dhl.com/content/dam/dhl/global/core/documents/pdf/glo-core-logistics-trend-radar-5thedition.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">fifth edition of their Logistics Trend Radar</a>, DHL outlines how, despite the apparent challenges present, the Covid-19 pandemic has actually been the catalyst for several innovations within the logistics sector.&nbsp; The report outlines these key innovations that have emerged over 2020:

1. Wearable technology

The restriction in movement and travel, along with more stringent healthy and safety policies that make it more difficult to access manufacturing sites, means that logistics companies have been making use of wearable technology such as smart glasses. These then allow off-site logistics expert to provide remote support for things like maintaining or repairing complex manufacturing equipment.

Enforcing social distancing in a busy warehouse environment has also been a challenge for logistics companies. Wearable electronic tags alert workers if they spend too long in close proximity with someone else. The devices also have contact tracing abilities in the event of someone in the warehouse contracting the virus.

2. 3D printing

With the huge increase in demand for personal protective equipment (PPE) and medical equipment, 3D printing became an important way to meet this increased demand. Many companies used their existing 3D printing capabilities to switch to making a range of items needed to deal with the pandemic, including face shields and ventilator parts.

3. Contactless operations

With a new emphasis on trying to prevent the spread of the virus, logistics facilities needed to find a way to cut down physical contact with machinery and equipment. Innovations like fixed presentation scanners allow for rapid scanning with no need to touch the machine. Other contactless delivery options are also becoming more widely used, such as parcel lockers and autonomous delivery robots.

4. Robotics and automation

Unloading goods from shipments is one area of the logistics industry that requires multiple people to work close to each other and the container. To help maintain physical distance while completing these tasks, logistics companies are using robots to help workers maintain physical distance from each other.

Because of the restriction of movement in many countries, there was a significant increase in e-commerce activity, with a simultaneous decrease in labour availability as workers needed to isolate at home if they'd come into contact with the virus or become ill. To help with this increased warehouse activity, picking robots helped manufacturers to meet the sudden demand increases amid staff shortages.

<a href="https://www.dhl.com/content/dam/dhl/global/core/documents/pdf/glo-core-logistics-trend-radar-5thedition.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Read the full article in the trends report here</a>.

Covid-19 and innovation in the logistics sector

Q2 2020 took place in the middle of South Africa's national lockdown as a response to the Covid-19 pandemic. As a result, retail trading density (in other words, sales per square metre) continued to be severely constrained, as with Q1.

As Q2 began in April, trading halted abruptly in South Africa, with the exception of only essential goods and services. Over the month, trading density declined by 64.5% compared with April 2019.

Although more retail categories were allowed to trade in May and June, with trading density recovering to -31% and -27% in those months, overall retail trading density still remained much lower than over the same period in 2019.

Throughout the whole of the second quarter, trading density recorded a negative growth of -26.2%, while foot count dropped by 37.1%. but spend per head increased by 1.4%. There is a perception that because consumers were limiting their shopping trips over this period, they were spending more on each visit. These figures show that this was not the case, i.e. additional spend per visit did not make up for fewer visits.

Over the quarter, the average vacancy rate of SAPOA's MSCI Retail Trading Density Index was 5.6% in June 2020, which was up slightly from Q1.

Regional malls saw the lowest vacancy rate, but this came at a cost: gross rental only increased by 3.7% year on year in these malls, suggesting a decline in renewals and re-letting of tenants. In line with this, Super Regional malls saw an average of two stores become vacant since lockdown commenced.

Besides the negative effect of the pandemic on retail vacancy rates, Edgars also closed several of its underperforming stores over Q2, which further impacted the declining figures.

In summary, the national lockdown resulted in an almost unprecedented drop in performance of the retail sector over the second quarter, despite the allowance for essential goods to be traded.

<a href="https://www.sapoa.org.za/media/5835/retail-trends-report-sept-2020.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Read the full SAPOA Retail Trends Report for Q2 here</a>.

SAPOA Q2 2020 Retail Trends Report

The RICS Global Commercial Property Monitor report is out for Q2 of 2020, outlining trends in the global commercial property markets from April through June of this year. Feedback was received via questionnaires filled out from 2083 companies around the world during June and July of this year.

Unsurprisingly, the global commercial property outlook during the second quarter of this year still appeared gloomy, mirroring the ongoing negative impact of Covid-19 on the global economy, and the knock-on effect of the real estate sector. The most notable trends detailed in the report are outlined below.

A downbeat economic outlook is affecting the global real estate sector

The IMF’s latest attempt at a forecast for the global economy was that it would grow by 5.4% in 2021, following a contraction of 4.9% this year. But this sharp turnaround is being driven largely by emerging and developing markets in Asia. For advanced economies, such as the US and Europe, the forecast is more downcast, with only just over half of this years loss of output forecast to be recaptured in 2021.

This is congruent with the headline RICS global sentiment indicator (capturing feedback regarding both the occupier and investor markets) dropping from -28 to -37 in Q2, according to survey respondents.

An increased number of respondents see the commercial property market as being fairly valued

Around two thirds of respondents see the commercial property market as currently in a downturn phase, while 9% perceive the market to be in the bottom phase. However, over 40% feel that the real estate sector is being fairly valued currently, in part due to the significant adjustments that have been made to monetary policies in the wake of the pandemic.

It's interesting to note that respondents have remained fairly consistent in their views between Q2 and the previous Q1. Namely, the majority of respondents put the risk level for the commercial property sector at 4 within a range of 1 to 6.

Expectations remain modest

At a global level, a significant proportion of respondents see rents and capital values declining over the next twelve months. Looking at specific regions, there are slightly more positive projections for APAC, slightly more downbeat numbers for the Americas and roughly similar expectations for Europe for this period.

Sector performances are becoming more divergent.

The report found that most respondents still agree that the worsening trend in the retail sector as a result of ecommerce has been exacerbated by the lockdown imposed in a large number of countries in response to the spread of the coronavirus. Demand for retail space at a global level fell sharply in Q2. There was also a sharp reduction in demand for office space, and a decline in the
industrials/logistics sector, albeit much more modest.

Respondents also predict that over the next 12 months, the retail sector will continue to be negatively affected, due to a combination of cyclical weakness and structural change. In contrast, the industrials/logistics outlook is much more positive globally, but individual country predictions vary significantly. The US and Germany specifically are likely to be some of the stronger performers.

Globally, over 50% of respondents indicated that the global real estate footprint would be up by 10% over the next two years, while one third suggested it would be more. Only 14% judged there would be no change. Additionally, respondents also envisaged a shift in office space from urban to suburban locations due to the fallout from Covid. The global results show 10% viewing this as a strong trend, 50% saying it will happen to some extent and 40% disagreeing.

A higher demand for health and wellbeing

The majority of respondents agreed that another effect of the Covid pandemic will be a greater emphasis placed on health and wellbeing in the workplace. Globally, only around one-third of respondents felt that tenants would be able to shoulder the cost of paying for the required enhancements.

<a href="https://www.rics.org/globalassets/rics-website/media/market-surveys/gcpm/q2-2020-rics-global-commercial-property-monitor.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Read the full RICS Commercial Property Monitor report for Q2 2020 here.</a>

RICS Global Property Monitor for Q2, 2020

Almost every industry has suffered in South Africa since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. The fact that the country was struggling economically before the pandemic hit means that the effects look to be even more devastating, and the recovery looks slower, than many other countries around the world.

There's one industry that's been somewhat immune to this serious downturn though - and that's e-commerce. Although e-commerce was originally not able to operate in South Africa, the government quickly reversed that decision and e-commerce stores opened before bricks and mortars did. Added to this were growing fears about the spread of the virus due to social contact grew, meaning that shopping online could largely eliminate this risk.

If it continues, this e-commerce "mini-boom" will have a knock-on effect for industrial landlords, who will benefit for the increased demand for physical warehouse space. This is in sharp contrast to commercial landlords, who are bearing the brunt of the reduced demand for physical space, as well as tenants who are unable to afford rent because their businesses haven't been operating at normal capacity.

This trend seems to be global, and not just limited to South Africa. For example, analysts have found that the industrial and logistics sector in the Asia/Pacific region has proved much more resilient in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis.

“The sector continues to grow in its appeal to global investors as a stable and secure asset class, which will benefit in the post-COVID-19 era from the exponential increase in demand for online retail services," <a href="https://www.savills.com/prospects/sectors-ind-log-resilience.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">says Michael Fenton, Australian head of industrial and logistics at global real estate company Savills</a>. "When compared with other asset classes, such as office and retail, logistics generally offers longer and more stable income streams and lower capital expenditure over the investment life cycle,” he adds.

In <a href="https://www.schroders.com/en/za/intermediary/insights/markets/is-the-industrial-sector-positioned-for-even-stronger-growth-after-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a July article on the industrial sector</a>, global investment firm Shroders echoed the view that, with non-essential shops forced to close during the pandemic, online shopping accelerated dramatically across all age groups in many countries across the world. The firm believes that even when physical shops are fully reopened, many people will continue to shop online as users (many of whom were first-time e-shoppers) have realised how simple and convenient it can be. This, in turn, leads to sustained and even increased demand for warehouse space.

The firm also lists other reasons for the sector's resilience, such as stronger demand for storage due to higher inventory levels. This is due to an increase in "safety stock" for the future, as certain retailers (such as food and pharmacies) experienced dramatic demand during the early stages of lockdown.

Most analysts agree that the growth in e-commerce was happening before the pandemic hit, and the events of 2020 have simply accelerated it. If this remains true, distribution warehouses become an even more essential component of the new e-commerce economy - providing light at the end of the tunnel to industrial landlords and property investors during what has already been a tumultuous year.

Industrial property and the e-commerce boom

If we've learned one thing in 2020, it's that we're more adaptable than we think - and that includes how we work. For many businesses, there was no choice during lockdown other than to adapt to the concept of working remotely.

Now that we're coming out of lockdown and businesses can largely return to the workplace, it turns out that there were many advantages businesses discovered about remote working (cost savings, time savings and convenience being three of them) - so they're not as happy to go back to how things were before.

Enter the concept of the virtual office, which can be thought of more as a service offering than a physical space (although many virtual office offerings may be a hybrid of the two).

In its simplest form, a virtual office is a suite of services that provide things like a physical business address, a receptionist service, and access to a dedicated phone line with a business number.

Other virtual office services could also include physical meeting rooms, day offices or collaboration spaces for businesses to have ad-hoc access to physical spaces when they need it. Essentially, it's using a combination of technology and spaces to help business work more efficiently.

Perhaps one of the biggest advantages of a virtual offices is for a customer to add or take away services on demand - whether they just need a postal address and a VoIP phone system they can access from their smartphone, right through to a receptionist who passes on messages to you, or even physical meeting rooms or hot desks. This means that a business gets the benefits of a traditional office, with flexibility and lower costs - making them perfect for these changing times. They also allow businesses to present a professional image to customers while behind the scenes, they are actually operating remotely and most, if not all, of their employees are at home.

With the demand for virtual offices increasing, this could be an opportunity for landlords to make better use of their existing office spaces that may be less in demand by tenants who don't need as much space. Rather, landlords could repurpose their space to be more flexible and accommodate a larger number of tenants on an ad-hoc basis. Things like desks, meeting rooms and even collaborative spaces for in-person workshops could be reserved via a virtual booking system so that there are no conflicts, but so that the space gets used more often.

2020 is a time to adapt or die - especially for commercial office landlords who may be struggling to fill their office square meterage that was full before the pandemic hit. By thinking differently, such as creating a virtual office where members take advantage of the technological offerings to work remotely but "drop in" to use physical spaces where needed, landlords can stabilise or even increase their revenues, where previously larger single-use tenants may have been struggling to afford their rent bill.

The attraction of the virtual office in 2020

In the August 2020 issue of Asset Magazine, real estate company CBRE Excellerate Africa commented on the state of Southern Africa's commercial property industry in the post-Covid era, <a href="https://www.cbreexcellerate.com/joomla/images/pdfs/Covid-19_Assessing_the_impact_of_the_SA_Real_Estate_Sector_-__May_2020_final.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">as encapsulated in a report the company released in May</a>. Jonathan Turner, CBRE's managing director of advisory and transaction services, and Ndibu Motaung, divisional manager of operations, had several key trends to share:
1. South Africa's economic recovery looks set to be U-shaped as opposed to V-shaped. in other words, the country needs more time to recover due to its numerous other pre-existing economic problems, including rising unemployment, money being spend on relief packages, and a shrinking tax base.
2. Covid-19 has accelerated the growth of certain behaviours and market segments. E-commerce, for example, has boomed during lockdown, and has lead to higher demand for warehousing and distribution centres, as companies try to be more efficient in terms of getting goods to market amid increased demand.
3. No one was prepared for the impact of Covid-19 on the commercial office market. Commercial property investors are now having to review their strategy as the demand for offices drops as companies realise they need less space than they did before. This has resulted in a huge oversupply of office space, which will need to be addressed by repurposing the space, or transacting differently with clients. In any event, landlords will need to be more flexible in servicing their clients' more fluid space requirements.
4. In the case of listed properties, landlords are being pressured by lenders, tenants and shareholders. The tenant-landlord relationships needs to become a partnership, for example by recognising a tenant's changing space needs and shrinking budget due to overall economic restraints. And, landlords need to be even more sure that their buildings are offering full value to tenants, for example by being environmentally friendly and space efficient.&nbsp;
5. Valuation of property assets will need to take a longer term view. While there may be a significant reduction in the value of these assets in the short term, it's important for investors to also look at residual value and longer-term income streams. Despite all this though, a heightened risk premium (which is now the case post Covid-19) will almost certainly lead to lower valuations across the board.
This article was first printed in <a href="https://assetmag.co.za/issue84/index.html?page=2" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Issue 84 of Asset Magazine from August 2020</a>.&nbsp;

5 commercial property trends post Covid-19

The <a href="https://data.blackpepperonline.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/FNB-Property-Broker-Survey-Q2-1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">2nd Quarter of 2020 FNB Commercial Property Broker Survey,</a> compiled by FNB Commercial Property sector strategist John Loos, saw office, industrial and retail property markets decline over this period.

This was unsurprising given that the survey was done from late May to mid June, during the strict nationwide lockdown that South Africa was experiencing at the time due to the Covid-19 pandemic. These conditions placed severe limitations on the level of property trade along with many other sectors beyond essential goods.

To compound this, the Covid-19 pandemic most likely plunged the South African economy into a deeper recession than the country was already experiencing up until the first quarter of 2020. However, the report notes that the Covid-19 crisis seems to have overshadowed South Africa's pre-existing economic structural constraints and flawed economic policy, which barely featured in the second quarter survey. As the report noted, this doesn't mean that these problems aren't currently there - but rather that the severity of the lockdown and its comparative economic effects seems to have eclipsed other existing problems the sector faced.

The survey asked brokers for their perceptions of market activity levels, and most respondents were the least pessimistic about the industrial and warehouse property market compared to the office and retail sectors. However, the report noted that industrial property's activity rating was still depressed, declining noticeably during the second quarter compared to the first.

Another key insight is that the brokers who were surveyed appear to have had inflated expectations of industrial property performance since the survey was first started in early 2019. However, when asking respondents about activity direction in the past 6 months, respondents reported an increase in activity in only 1 of the 6 quarters surveyed. What was expected, therefore, appeared not to match up with what ultimately occurred in the industrial property sector.

A key factor driving brokers' near term activity expectations - besides Covid-19 - was the view that property demand could be impacted by companies revising their office space requirements. In essence, the increasing trend to working from home, especially now that companies are slowly returning to their "new normal" could have a severely negative impact on the future performance of the office property market.

<a href="https://data.blackpepperonline.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/FNB-Property-Broker-Survey-Q2-1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">You can read the full FNB property sector report for Q2 here</a>.

FNB Commercial Property Broker Survey - Q2 2020

As <a rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="SAPOA's Q1 retail report found (opens in a new tab)" href="https://www.blackpepperonline.co.za/posts/sapoa-updates/sapoa-retail-report-june-2020/25309" target="_blank">SAPOA's Q1 retail report found</a>, the effects of the nationwide lockdown due to the Covid-19 pandemic may only be felt in months and even years to come. As was noted in this report, decentralised vacancy rates averaged just over 11% nationally for Grade A and Grade B offices, which is the worst since 2004. This is exacerbated by the fact that the property sector was struggling even before the pandemic hit.

Now, in their recent <a rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="Q2 Rode Report (opens in a new tab)" href="https://rode.co.za/rodes-report-on-the-south-african-property-market/" target="_blank">Q2 Rode Report</a> on the South African property market, local property economists Rode &amp; Associates say that the increased trend towards working from home post lockdown means that the property sector faces an even greater threat in the longer term.

Kobus Lamprecht, head of research at Rode &amp; Associates, notes that companies might reduce their required office space as more employees work from home on a permanent basis, which will inevitably lead to a prolonged oversupplied market. As a knock-on effect, Lamprecht says that companies might have a reduced need for office space as more employees adopt a work from home approach. However, he noted that this trend should be somewhat offset by the fact that more space will be required per employee in the office space itself, as per the government's Covid-19 social distancing guidelines.

With the changing trends towards working from home, it's clear that an already depressed property industry faces even further pressure. As the Covid-19 pandemic progresses and working habits change, landlords and property developers will need to adjust to these changing times by recognising what their tenants need - and finding a way to provide this.

Whether it's a flexible lease agreement, a more creative solution for office layouts, or the ability for smaller tenants to sublease, pre-empting these changing needs will allow the property industry stay agile and adaptable in the months and years to come.

Working from home is a long term threat for the property market

The RICS Global Commercial Property Monitor report is out for Q1 of 2020, outlining trends in the commercial property investment and occupier markets. Feedback was received via questionnaires filled out from 2604 companies around the world.

In a similar vein to the recently released <a href="https://blackpepperonline.co.za/sapoa-retail-report-june-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">SAPOA Retail Report for Q1</a>, the outlook looks gloomy considering the impacts of the global Covid-19 pandemic on the world's economy and real estate sector. The biggest trends identified in the report are outlined below.

A significant shift in both current sentiment and expectations indicators. 

While the report shows the retail sector as being the most depressed, the biggest shift in sentiment between Q4 of 2020 and Q1 of 2020 is seen within the office sector. Anecdotal explanations for this include the increased scope for agile working as a result of the virus, requiring less office space.

More divergence in expectations between prime and secondary retail properties.

The report found that throughout all the countries surveyed, capital values in the secondary retail sector are expected to decline at around 8% this coming year, as opposed to only around 4% for prime space.

Markets that were previously the most upbeat are seeing the biggest knock. 

Countries like Portugal, Greece and Hungary experienced the biggest turnaround in capital value projections - because they had the strongest expectations towards the end of last year. In contrast, places like Hong Kong are seeing only a 13 point deterioration in capital value, largely due to the fact that the real estate market was already under pressure last year due to the political unrest.

International capital turns are more defensive.

All survey participants were asked to assess how risky they viewed the current environment for real estate
investment. Compared to the Q4 report, most respondents in Q1 saw the current environment as more risky. There has also been a modest increase in the number of respondents who view the current environment as very high risk.

<a href="https://www.rics.org/globalassets/rics-website/media/knowledge/research/market-surveys/global-commercial-property-monitor-q1-2020.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="access the full RICS Commercial Property Monitor report for Q1 2020 here (opens in a new tab)">Access the full RICS Commercial Property Monitor report for Q1 2020 here</a>.

RICS Global Property Monitor for Q1, 2020

SAPOA's retail report for the first quarter of 2020 (ending March 2020) is out and the conclusion is - as one would expect - fairly downcast.

The full implications of the nationwide shutdown as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic on the retail sector are still to be fully felt in the market, given that the shutdown only began right at the end of Q1 on the 26th March. However, some consequences are now already becoming evident, and the findings from the report may be a precursor to this becoming more widely visible.

As the report notes, "Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, the South African economy was already in a fragile state. As the full effect of the shock starts filtering through the economy, unemployment and business confidence could continue to take further strain, which will impact disposable income growth and consequently, retail sales growth." The report also points out that while the interest rate cuts may provide some relief, the expected petrol price hikes and the prospect of loadshedding could more than offset these benefits.

Here are some more of the key research findings for the retail sector in Q1 of 2020:

- Perhaps surprisingly, spend per head did not grow significantly in March 2020, which suggests that malls recorded the same visitors and spend as in February 2020. However, the choice of goods and services consumers chose to spend their money on changed significantly (for example, there was a much higher spend on essential goods rather than on luxury consumer items).

- Over the long term, growth in the amount spent per visitor has been the primary driver of trading growth. As the industry looks ahead, it's expected that both measures will have declined during April 2020, given the trade constrictions under the Level 5 lockdown conditions. This would then be the first time since the index's inception in 2003 that both measures decline at the same time.

- Only two categories of goods saw positive month-on-month growth across all centre formats: food retailers, and health and beauty. Food retailers benefited from the bulk buying that happened pre-lockdown, as sales increased by around 20% in this category. The Health &amp; Beauty category (driven by pharmacies) also saw strong growth although not as high as the food sector.

- SAPOA's Q1 report seems to foreshadow the fallout that the retail sector has been experiencing during Q2, amid the full rollout of the nationwide lockdown. How serious the sector will be affected remains to be seen, but it's almost certain that it will have seen a sharp decline in line with the rest of South Africa's economy over this period.

<a href="https://www.sapoa.org.za/media/5789/retail-trends-report-may-2020-v2.pdf">Read the full SAPOA Retail Report for Q1 here</a>.

SAPOA Retail Report - June 2020

If you're renting commercial office space, you will at some point need to decide whether or not to renew your lease with your landlord - or relocate somewhere new.

Especially in recent months, many tenants are realising that more of their staff can work from home than they previously thought, which potentially means that their space needs are less.

This may mean downscaling to smaller office premises to cater for fewer permanent, office-faring employees. Still, the costs of moving offices can be surprisingly steep, so if you run the numbers, it may actually be worth staying at your current premises and perhaps coming to an agreement with your landlord. Here are five things you should consider when making this decision:

1. Run your numbers. Although it may seem obvious, it's surprising how few tenants actually look in detail at the numbers that they are paying for their current lease versus what it would cost to move. As a starting point, create a financial model that compares the costs of moving versus staying. When doing this, look at things like current fair market rental rates per square metre, tenant improvements you may need in future, your office space needs in terms of head counts over the next five years, and how much of a credit risk you are.

2. It's not just about cost. Now that you've done your sums, realise that moving or staying isn't just about money. You should also factor in things like the location of your new versus current premises, the costs to your business will be in terms of disruption while you move, and what the relationship with your new landlord is likely to be like in terms of their flexibility and fitting in with your desired business culture. These should all form part of your decision making process.

3. Shop around. Even if you intend to stay where you are and renew your current lease, it's a good idea to find out what landlords are charging in the wider market, what demand is like, and how things may have changed since you negotiated your existing lease. A reputable property broker offering tenant advisory services can help you put a foot into the market without needing to commit. Whoever you use, make sure that they're experienced with the areas and types of offices you are considering.

4. Are you on a strong footing when it comes to negotiating with your landlord? Doing a financial modelling process may reveal that it's more cost effective to stay in your current premises. If this is the case, how much sway do you have when it comes to negotiating new lease terms? Do your homework in terms of what you should be paying, what other tenants are paying, and what else is available in the market. Consider using a property broker for their tenant advisory services to help you do this. Being clear about what's fair to ask for in your negotiation will put you on a stronger footing when it comes to a lease renewal that suits your business going forward.

5. How important is flexibility to you? <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6Y6f-FJ5Yw" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">As outlined in our latest video</a>, in these uncertain times, it may be more important than ever for you to negotiate shorter lease terms, be able to sub-lease, or have first right of refusal. Whether you're staying or moving, make sure that you have the sufficient levels of flexibility built into your lease to make you comfortable with signing on the dotted line.

Moving premises or staying where you are both have their advantages or disadvantages. Which one of these weigh in your favour depends on where you are as a business right now, where it's going, and what the circumstances are in the market in general. By bearing these five points in mind, you can make a sound decision that helps solidify your business presence rather than endanger its cashflow.

Should you renew your lease?

As South Africa returns to semi-normal after our nationwide lockdown, many businesses are returning to work with new conditions in the workplace. From social distancing to hand sanitising to working remotely, there are workarounds for many office environments to continue operations semi-normally. But perhaps the sector that will struggle the most with returning to normality is retail. Just some of the reasons for this are:
<ul>
 	<li>The increased move to shopping online, leaving physical retail stores with fewer customers than before</li>
 	<li>Stringent regulations about how many people are allowed into premises at once - thereby removing the "busy shop" scenario and in effect discouraging&nbsp; crowds of people entering a retailer's premises</li>
 	<li>The economic fallout from the Covid-19 lockdown situation, causing many more people to have much less disposable income, which is especially challenging for physical retailers in the non-essential or luxury space</li>
 	<li>The increased expense and difficulties involved with sourcing raw materials and products from suppliers, particularly those abroad given the fewer options and therefore increased costs of shipping goods in and out of South Africa</li>
</ul>
Given this scenario, the natural reaction for retailers may be to abandon their physical stores altogether in favour of an online only retail environment. But is this the right move? It can be, but not always. In an article by Anthony Sharpe in the May edition of <a href="https://online.anyflip.com/enio/tctz/mobile/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="Business Day Commercial Property magazine (opens in a new tab)">Business Day Commercial Property magazine</a> entitled "Retail in the time of coronavirus", Retail Prophet's Dough Stephens makes a case that the physical store still has its place as a form of media for brands. "It's a physical, immersive, powerful, community-based form of media that brands can use to bring consumers into their ecosystem," he says.

With this perspective, retailers may need to think more strategically about how they position themselves when it comes to having a physical store. Perhaps this means pivoting to providing a more curated shopping experience, where customers are drawn to the store for the tactile experience of immersing themselves into the brand (as opposed to browsing your products online).

Retailers could also look for a "blended" omnichannel solution, where they have both an online and a physical store. This could then allow for smaller retail spaces that contain a smaller selection of products in the physical store. The effect of this is then a smaller rental and staff bill, which means lower operational costs.

As part of this solution, Stephens outlines an alternative for brands to consider partnering with specialised online retailers instead of developing an online solution themselves. If you're a retailer, this can be a good idea if you don't have the experience or skills needed to move to the online space. For example, if you're a clothes retailer, you may decide to partner with a company like Takealot or Superbalist who can house your product on their e-commerce site, without taking on the risk and costs of doing so yourself.

Whichever direction you decide to take as a retailer, the only thing we can be certain of is that the commercial landscape in South Africa - and globally - has changed for the foreseeable future. Those retailers who survive will surely be the ones who are able to best adapt with these new times.

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